Error of Minimal Expectations
Even experts fail to estimate the impact of new technologies. Being well-informed does not mean you understand the consequences. A British parliamentary committee believed Thomas Edison’s lightbulb was “unworthy of the attention of practical or scientific men.” Thomas Edison himself only thought the phonograph would be used for business dictations. The Wright Brothers demonstrated flight after heavier-than-air travel was written off by many failed inventors. After proof it was possible, respected astronomer William H. Pickering declared commercial travel wouldn’t work. He said “it is clear that with our present devices there is no hope of competing for racing speed with either our locomotives or our automobiles.” Even the company Mercedes failed to forecast the future of their cars. They knew more about automobiles than anyone but believed there would never be more than a million in use worldwide. We frequently have a misunderstanding about the capabilities of new technology, tapering our expectations too low.