Keep It Simple, Stupid
If we want to be right more, it's critical we remove any assumptions that aren't necessary. The extra assumptions may be a more accurate depiction of the truth, but in including them we only increase the probability that we are equally or less right. Occam's Razor pushes us to get to the simplest explanation. It's important to ask, "Does this assumption really need to be here?" You should seek out evidence that it needs to remain rather than create false dependencies. Without removing unnecessary assumptions, you fall victim to what Daniel Kahneman calls the Conjunction Fallacy. This happens when we assume two events happening in conjunction are more likely to be true than either one by itself. ==We tend to believe the more complex we make something, the more likely it is to be true due to specificity. Follow KISS! Keep It Simple, Stupid!==